Australia v Sweden Covid

Sweden’s raw death rate is abut 24,000 and Australia’s 20,000, Sweden’s population is 10m and cases 2.5m on either proportion Sweden’s has vastly higher death rate.

There is a lot of noise in sections of the media about significant difference in excess deaths, which is attributed to the different approach, the implication being Sweden has done vastly better.

A simple review of the facts simply do not support that thesis, and what’s more both do vastly better than most other countries.

I thought I might use the data in my teaching. The relative comparison of Australia and Sweden does not confirm that Sweden performed better. The actual death rate is higher compared to Australia and the excess death comparisons don’t suggest a major difference especially compared to the rest of the world.
The Australian via Crichton, The Herald via Bolt et al. constantly try to suggest this Sweden line but they don’t in my view know what they are talking about.
I have accessed the base data and have copied and the sources.
Personally, I ignore most media reports as they don’t try to report dispassionately and always have a bloody angle eg Fox in the US and Sky here.

Pop = 25.7m

Proportion of deaths
Deaths/cases = 20000/11300000 = 0.001

Excess Deaths 2022 ~ 20000 (15% over long term)


Pop = 10.4 m

Proportion of deaths
Deaths/cases = 23928/2700000 = 0.008

See graphs below

OECD most recent roughly 6% v 3%, whilst Sweden best, Australia compares well with the rest.

Different data set and methodology for balance, data March 2023, here we see reversed result but both Australia and Sweden do well in comparison to rest.

Graph show the % excess deaths, Sweden has peaked and dropping, Aust recent data not available to me. The graph does not seem to support the idea there is a major difference between Sweden and Australia. If anything Sweden has some very high early peaks.

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