The covid-19 death rate in the US is shown to have a statistically significant difference between between Afro-American (AA) and White populations. The graph below shows the AA proportion difference compared to the W proportion below the x=0 line. There is a clear difference across nearly all states.
The PCA biplot confirms the difference. The vectors show a negative relationship between AA and W, AA is linked with the poverty vector as well. NY is the main outlier.
A basic cluster plot across all the data is shown below.
Welch Two Sample t-test
data: dt[, 1] and dt[, 2]
t = 3.7143, df = 80.722, p-value = 0.0003739
alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
mean of x mean of y
Climategate – as I understand it this is about the statistical techniques (trick) used to compare data sources and to ‘hide the decline’ of tree ring data from trees in Siberia after 1960 which were not consistent with other worldwide data. There have been plenty of enquires which all clear scientists of wrongdoing.
This website gave the best discussion I could find: https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/solutions/fight-misinformation/debunking-misinformation-stolen-emails-climategate.html I can’t vouch for the organization but it appears reputable.
Even if one accepted the skullduggery claims, the temperature data was not, it seems, involved.
With respect to the destruction of data, I found this blog article (best I could find), which seems at variance to the claims made by skeptics. http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2009/08/mcintyre_versus_jones_climate_1.html
My conclusion is that there is not much that I can find to support the view expressed in a range of sites that the scientists were involved in a cover up.
Removal from Journal Editorial Boards or paper rejection
There are discussions of paper refusal – here is one example https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10835291/Scientists-accused-of-suppressing-research-because-of-climate-sceptic-argument.html
I am concerned about the claim that climate science can move into activist territory and be biased – there needs to be evidence, is there hard evidence that this is preventing contrary views being expressed?
How Climate Skeptic papers can be published. This is an interesting perspective: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/jan/24/murky-world-of-science-journals-a-new-frontier-for-climate-deniers
A literature review of climate skeptic paper published: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652617317821
On this brief review, I can’t find any evidence of a hoax, I find disputes, attempts to set record straight and to explain, possible confusion, accusations etc. all of which are classic in a complex change process.
Misleading use of graphs- Humansarefree.com
US temperature Data
The graphs below show the 1999 published data from NASA. On left there seems to be no pattern on the right the global temperature anomalies show an increasing trend. Anomalies are measured by taking the difference between yearly temperatures and the 30 year average, see the Y-axis, 1.0 means that the yearly average was 1degree hotter than the 30 year average. In the US the temperatures in the 1930s were very hot over a wide spread area, this is the dust bowl period.
The NASA 2017 graph shows the same data but has the data from 2000 to 2018 shown and a statistical trend line.
Humansarefree.com make the claim that ‘this is significant scientific fraud’, there is no evidence for this and the trend shown should give rise to concern.
This graph is used to state that there is no discernable pattern of temperature and that it was hotter in the 30s.
The Y-axis is not easy to interpret, but bear in mind this graph shows HEATWAVE conditions only, defined to be above the 10 year average over four consecutive days. The graph does not enable you to say if the average temperature is increasing or is the frequency of hot days increasing.
The graph is for temperature data across the US, the data shown on the following graphic is restricted to US cities.
The following graph shows that the frequency of heat waves and the length is increasing n US cities. (source https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/us-heat-waves).
This graph below shows the change in hot days and hot nights shown as a percentage of land areas.
How do we interpret the graph? Hot nights are on the increase, there is recent dip in day time temperature coverage of land. The trend line is upwards.
Finally, the clam 30,000 scientists are against climate change dates to a petition circulating since 1998, there are numerous fact checks on this and I feel at the minimum such criticism ought to be taken into account before making such claims. Certainly they made Hoax claim.
In conclusion, the data and discussion on the Humansarefree is misleading an does not attempt a sound analysis.
Andrew Bolt’s Herald Sun Article 24/12/2018
Claim 1: Global Warming has slowed dramatically since last century, giving lower temperatures as compared to the climate models. (Source: Dr Roy Spencer – see http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/12/the-five-questions-global-warming-policy-must-answer/)
First observation is what data is being used to make this claim and is it surface or lower atmosphere or sea surface data.
Spencer shows two graphs one for the surface and the other for the lower atmosphere.
The graphs show temperature anomaly data, variation of average temperature from 30 year mean. The trend lines on the data show an increasing trend in temperature. Variations from year to year above the Yaxis 0 line indicate hotter.
I see no reason why one would conclude that there is evidence for global warming slowing, in fact, it continues the trend.
Turning to the accuracy of climate models, again I can’t see what the issue is here, the models indicate a similar trend. One would expect variance from actual data, is it a statistically significant difference. (see http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342/meta) for a nice balanced research article on the ‘pause’, which it refutes and discusses the statistical issue.
Claim 2: Global Warming is causing more and worse cyclones
This would appear a contentious area, an article in National Geographic (https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/hurricanes-cyclones-move-slower-drop-more-rain-climate-change-science/) makes an interesting observation about slowing speed and dropping more rain and rising sea levels will contribute to the intensity of storms increasing with the frequency decreasing.
This article gives a balance view and discusses the role of climate models (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/)
The claim is misleading as it does not consider the broader view, and implicitly is dismissing the role of more sophisticated models.
Claim 3: Global warming is causing more drought, the IPPC claims there is no global trend.
The IPCC do claim on a global scale there is no evidence of increased drought based on climate change, but not on a regional scale. This aspect is discussed in the report and indicate areas like the Mediterranean and Middle east are experiencing man induced drought.
This is a blog article reference so caution is needed but it provides some interesting insights which deserves more investigation (http://catallaxyfiles.com/2018/12/05/ipcc-contradicts-experts-pours-cold-water-on-man-made-reversible-global-drought-hysteria/)
The claim is misleading and concludes that no systemic global change indicates that there can be no regional change.
Claim 4: Rainfall in Australia has increased in the last century
Here is the BoM report (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a010-southern-rainfall-decline.shtml) the key point is that trends are regional in nature not global, which is what the statement implies, that is the increase would impact all areas equally. The report from CSIRO make similar reading (https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/state-of-the-climate).
The following report (https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/australian-climate-change/australian-trends/) indicates
“Rainfall averaged across Australia has slightly increased since 1900, with a large increase in north-west Australia since 1970. A declining trend in winter rainfall persists in south-west Australia. Autumn and early winter rainfall has mostly been below average in the south-east since 1990.(climatechangeinaustralia, p1)
The claim is misleading and ignores regional differences.
Claim 5: Global warming means less food
The evidence stated to refute this claim is the grain harvest have set records in the past few years, there is no source given. There are however many research papers and government sources which at the very least ought to have been considered to give balance.
The claim is not negated and does not consider the broader discussion.
Claim 6: Polar bears are becoming extinct.
Emotive issue. This recent article outlines a view that possible global warming with cause problems for the bears (https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/02/polar-bears-starve-melting-sea-ice-global-warming-study-beaufort-sea-environment/), whereas Crockford indicates an increase (https://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/15/global-population-of-polar-bears-has-increased-by-2650-5700-since-2001/)
Claim 7: Consensus (97%) is largely debunked
The claim is about the likely impacts of climate change, it is a good point. However, that has been the case all along and I can’t see why one would use the word ‘debunked’. It is a very complex area and such statements tend to trivialize the matter.
In support of the claim Lindzen is referenced, he is retired from MIT. He disputes the likely impacts, but his own colleagues disagree with him, a fact I suggest should be noted and discussed. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06032017/climate-change-denial-scientists-richard-lindzen-mit-donald-trump
Curry (https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/27/special-report-on-sea-level-rise/) provides an independent research report on sea rise. It makes interesting reading, but is not conclusive and has not been peer reviewed, it is published by her private company. These latter facts should have been noted.
Claim 8: Australia cutting emissions is not going to have any effect.
This is of course true, Australia accounts 1.3% of emissions, with a proportion of 0.3% of the world’s population.
We also export a considerable amount of coal and iron ore to two of the worlds leading emission countries i.e. India and China.
We will suffer the consequences of climate change over which we have no control other than to (a) sensibly consider the matter and (b) encourage others to take action. The best way to do this is by setting an example. However, given our emissions intensive economy we have an enormous and costly adjustment to go through.
Claim 8: Refutes Phelps’ claim that Kiribati and Tuvalu will disappear due to climate change.
Kench’s research supports refuting this claim.
In conclusion, Andrew Bolt’s has presented many of the claims before. What I have attempt to show here is that the claims are mostly misleading and do not consider the broader picture. The article takes sides and is not balanced, nor does it seek to take a balanced approach. There an implication that consensus exists that climate change is real, but suggests there less consensus about the significance of any change. The evidence provided mentions two individuals, one a retired academic whose colleagues have ALL rejected his claims, and one an independent company owner whose research has not been peer reviewed, at least as far as I could determine. Such evidence is not sufficient to support the main claim of the article.
Overall, the article is misleading and does not seek to add materially to the publics understanding, rather it deals in contestable generalities.
Taken through the windscreen, bit of fun.
Road Trip July 2017
Alice Springs is in the centre of Australia, a two-hour flight from Melbourne. My wife, Cathie has travelled all through South Australia and the Northern Territory, taking groups of students or doing tours by bus or driving 4 wheel drive vehicles – I had been to Alice Springs once. In July 2017 we decided on a 10day trip, that would take us by car from Alice Springs up the Stuart Highway finishing in Darwin after stops in Tennent Creek for one night and Katherine for two nights where we took a boat tour of the famous Katherine Gorge. On reaching Darwin we went on a three day Kakadu-Arnhem Land organised Tour.
The map below allows you to zoom in and out. Alice Springs is south and Darwin north, the Stuart is Highway 1.
Flying from Melbourne on Monday the 3rd we arrived at 12.15am and collected the small SUV. The road is good as it turns out and any reasonably sized car would be fine, no need for an SUV or 4 wheel drive, and you would need to take insurance and advise the rental company of any intention to go off road. Many drive across the Tanami dessert route turning left off the highway and then driving to Darwin, who would need specific rental agreement to do this. We just drove up the highway!
In Alice there are many things to see and do, and places to visit. In the afternoon we managed to visit Standley Cassim and Simpsons Gap.
Next day we drove to Tennent Creek (around 5 hours), staying at the BlueRidge Motor Inn, just on the edge of town as you drive in. Comfortable, good dinner and great breakfast. Tennet Creek was just a stop on the way to Katherine, a 7 hour drive the next day.
On rout to Katherine is the Devel’s Marbles, large rounded outcrop of bolders. A quick stop at Mataranka to view the hot springs and then a visit to Edith falls. Here is link to facebook video, shows sites on way to Katherine.
In Katherine, we stayed at the Pine Creek motel, nice place, close to town, good rooms and another great breakfast.
Up early to make the 9am tour of Katherine Gorge (see video KatGorgee), three sections of river, each separated by rock falls that form natural dams. The rock is hard sandstone, not like the normal standstone. The floods during the monsoon season have over many millions of years have carved step rock cliffs resulting in spectacular scenary. Along the edges fresh water crocodiles were plentiful, sunny themselves on the waters edge. However, there were places to swim! I managed a dip and nearly feel over in the process, I did manage later to fall and spain my left leg..limped the rest of the trip!
Off to Darwin in the morning, a shorter 350km drive. Stayed at the Hilton on the edge of the bay. Opposite was a great park for kids and further down a WWII memorial to US sailors who perished in the bombing raids in 1942.
Harbour Darwin Past USS memorial Oil Tunnels
At night we ventured to Custaceans, an eatery on the end of Stokers Walf, watching the sun set over the harbour and eating a seafood platter for two is a great way to end the day.
Off next day on our 3 day Kakadu & Arnhem land tour. In short it was wonderful, it is full on, starts early with plenty of action, even if you have a bung leg.
Overview of trip also pics of the tour.
THE END! Darwin Airport.